How much does a solar panel cost per watt?
Solar module price per watt · $/W · measured 1975–2025 · fitted live from 51 observations by the Many Minded cost-curve engine.
The last measured value is $0.12/W (2025, OWID (IRENA / Nemet / Farmer & Lafond)). Over the fitted window the series falls 16.3% a year (80% interval −24.1% to −7.7%) — a halving every 3.9 years (80%: 2.5–8.6). Carried forward on that fit, 2030: $0.05/W (80%: $0.02/W–$0.12/W).
the curve
what this series measures
global average solar PV MODULE price per watt — not the installed-system cost.
what the fit says
| quantity | value | how it is computed |
|---|---|---|
| fitted rate | −16.3%/yr (80%: −24.1% to −7.7%) | Farmer–Lafond drift over the trailing window · n=11 points, 10 years |
| halving time | 3.9 years (80%: 2.5–8.6) | implied by the fitted drift |
| Wright's law | 25% cheaper per doubling of cumulative deployment | first-difference regression on 2,600 GW installed deployed · OWID/IRENA measured through 2024; 2026 estimated |
| deployment tempo | doubles every 4.2y (was 2.9y) → implies −6.6%/yr | learning holds while annual declines slow — each doubling of an ever-bigger base takes longer |
| Way scenario (scenario, not fit) | 2032: $0.08/W (80%: $0.04/W–$0.17/W) | 400 Monte-Carlo paths, deployment-conditional — growth 18%/yr decaying to 2%/yr (τ≈8y) |
| scale to the next halving | 2.4 doublings of deployment ≈ 10 years at today's pace | judged by scale, not calendar — scale survives regime noise better |
| curve check | accelerating (−12% → −15%/yr) | first half of the record versus the second, judged against the direction that helps this metric (falling) |
| regime break | ~2012 (−8% → −12%/yr, F=26) | Chow-style best single breakpoint, kept only above a conservative sup-F threshold |
the projection, with its interval
Log cost as a random walk with drift: the forecast variance grows with horizon (τ + τ²/m), which is why these bands widen instead of staying parallel. The middle column is the least useful number on this page; the interval is the claim.
| year | central fit | 80% interval | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.10/W | $0.07/W to $0.14/W | near horizon |
| 2027 | $0.08/W | $0.05/W to $0.14/W | near horizon |
| 2028 | $0.07/W | $0.04/W to $0.13/W | near horizon |
| 2029 | $0.06/W | $0.03/W to $0.12/W | the band is already wide here |
| 2030 | $0.05/W | $0.02/W to $0.12/W | the band is already wide here |
| 2031 | $0.04/W | $0.02/W to $0.11/W | the band is already wide here |
| 2032 | $0.03/W | $0.01/W to $0.10/W | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2033 | $0.03/W | $0.01/W to $0.09/W | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
Projected to 2033, the horizon the whole engine uses.
questions this page answers
How much does a solar panel cost per watt?
$0.12/W as of 2025, the latest measured value in the series (OWID (IRENA / Nemet / Farmer & Lafond)). The fitted trend has it falling 16.3% a year, with an 80% interval of −24.1% to −7.7%.
How fast is the price of a solar panel falling?
−16.3% a year over the fitted window, an 80% interval of −24.1% to −7.7% — a halving every 3.9 years (80%: 2.5 to 8.6 years). Fitted from 11 observations spanning 10 years.
What will the price of a solar panel be in 2030?
The central fit says $0.05/W, inside an 80% interval of $0.02/W to $0.12/W. The interval is the forecast; the middle number is only its midpoint. Bands widen with horizon because shocks accumulate — a constant-width band would be overconfident.
Is the decline in the price of a solar panel accelerating or slowing?
Splitting the record in half, the fitted rate went from −12% to −15% a year — accelerating. A Chow-style test finds a regime break around 2012 (−8% → −12% a year, F=26). Regime breaks, not window choice, are what dominate this method's errors — which is why every projection here carries an interval.
What is the learning rate for the price of a solar panel?
25% cheaper per doubling of cumulative deployment, fitted as a first-difference regression against 2,600 GW installed (OWID/IRENA measured through 2024; 2026 estimated). Deployment currently doubles every 4.2 years, against 2.9 years in the prior era, which implies −6.6% a year. Wright's law prices per doubling, not per year — as the installed base grows, the same learning rate yields smaller annual declines.
Where does this data come from?
OWID (IRENA / Nemet / Farmer & Lafond). 51 observations spanning 1975–2025, 1 of them from the live feed. Curated benchmark history, extended by a weekly authoritative fetch and by news figures fact-checked against their source before they may touch a fit. Both the observation ledger and the fitting code are public, and the engine publishes its own calibration score and its misses.
the raw numbers
Every observation behind the fit, unrounded by us and unsmoothed. This table is here on purpose: graphs make people underestimate exponential change, and the raw series beside the curve is the one correction shown to work.
| year | $/W | change | grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | $128.3/W | — | curated |
| 1976 | $96.5/W | −24.8% | curated |
| 1977 | $70.4/W | −27.0% | curated |
| 1978 | $49.8/W | −29.3% | curated |
| 1979 | $41.9/W | −16.0% | curated |
| 1980 | $35.5/W | −15.3% | curated |
| 1981 | $28.4/W | −20.0% | curated |
| 1982 | $25.5/W | −10.2% | curated |
| 1983 | $20.6/W | −19.3% | curated |
| 1984 | $19.1/W | −7.1% | curated |
| 1985 | $16.7/W | −12.7% | curated |
| 1986 | $13.8/W | −17.3% | curated |
| 1987 | $11.7/W | −15.0% | curated |
| 1988 | $11.0/W | −6.6% | curated |
| 1989 | $11.3/W | +3.4% | curated |
| 1990 | $11.7/W | +3.4% | curated |
| 1991 | $10.8/W | −7.4% | curated |
| 1992 | $10.1/W | −6.8% | curated |
| 1993 | $9.5/W | −6.5% | curated |
| 1994 | $8.9/W | −5.4% | curated |
| 1995 | $8.3/W | −7.5% | curated |
| 1996 | $7.7/W | −6.5% | curated |
| 1997 | $7.7/W | −0.3% | curated |
| 1998 | $6.9/W | −9.9% | curated |
| 1999 | $6.4/W | −7.6% | curated |
| 2000 | $6.3/W | −1.9% | curated |
| 2001 | $6.1/W | −3.3% | curated |
| 2002 | $5.6/W | −8.5% | curated |
| 2003 | $5.3/W | −4.9% | curated |
| 2004 | $4.6/W | −14.0% | curated |
| 2005 | $4.6/W | +1.1% | curated |
| 2006 | $5.0/W | +9.0% | curated |
| 2007 | $5.1/W | +0.7% | curated |
| 2008 | $4.6/W | −8.9% | curated |
| 2009 | $3.1/W | −33.2% | curated |
| 2010 | $2.44/W | −20.7% | curated |
| 2011 | $2.00/W | −17.9% | curated |
| 2012 | $1.08/W | −46.1% | curated |
| 2013 | $0.83/W | −22.8% | curated |
| 2014 | $0.77/W | −7.7% | curated |
| 2015 | $0.72/W | −6.9% | curated |
| 2016 | $0.66/W | −7.5% | curated |
| 2017 | $0.56/W | −16.0% | curated |
| 2018 | $0.50/W | −10.9% | curated |
| 2019 | $0.45/W | −8.3% | curated |
| 2020 | $0.36/W | −20.8% | curated |
| 2021 | $0.32/W | −10.2% | curated |
| 2022 | $0.36/W | +10.2% | curated |
| 2023 | $0.31/W | −12.0% | curated |
| 2024 | $0.26/W | −17.6% | curated |
| 2025 | $0.12/W | −53.4% | feed |
where this comes from
- Source: OWID (IRENA / Nemet / Farmer & Lafond) — refetched weekly by the engine's benchmark cron.
- Basis: measured. Curated benchmark history, refreshed by the weekly authoritative fetch, extended by figures our daily editor extracts from the news — each of which is fact-checked against its source article before it may touch a fit.
- Observations: n=51, spanning 1975–2025, of which 1 arrived from the live feed. Ledger last updated 2026-11-02.
- Fit: the Farmer–Lafond stochastic model — log cost as a random walk with drift over a 10-year trailing window, Student-t tails, and (for series under 15 points) a volatility floor at their drift-volatility prior. The code is readable source; the observation ledger is public JSON.
- Reuse: this compiled series and the numbers on this page are published under CC BY 4.0 — take them, cite the page. The underlying source keeps its own terms (Our World in Data publishes under CC BY 4.0).
- Accuracy: the engine grades its own intervals in public — every feasible hindcast re-fitted on data as it stood, scored for whether the actual landed inside the 80% band. The calibration score is on the engine page, misses included.
the rest of the graph
Other ENERGY curves:
- Utility-scale solar, installed cost per watt $/W
- Lithium-ion battery pack price $/kWh
- Lithium-ion battery cell price $/kWh
- Onshore wind, levelized cost of electricity $/kWh
- Solar photovoltaic, levelized cost of electricity $/kWh
- Offshore wind, levelized cost of electricity $/kWh
Recent briefs from ENERGY, the daily record of what moved:
- Democratic state trifectas create clean energy policy openings 2026-11-08Democratic victories in 21 states now enable targeted clean energy policy implementation, though federal constraints and local opposition remain hurdles.
- Energy Friction: Market Projection ≠ Cost Drops 2026-11-08IDTechEx projects AI battery market at $2.7B by 2037, but this is a market size estimate, not proof of cost reductions or wider access.
- Tamil Nadu electricity group cites policy potential for lower bills 2026-11-08Tamil Nadu electricity group cites policy potential for lower bills
- Ecuador's 82-MW Solar Plant Connects to Grid Ahead of Schedule 2026-11-08Ecuador's largest operational solar plant begins delivering power to the grid, accelerating renewable energy integration.
- Repsol's Peoria Wind Project Moves Closer to Grid 2026-11-08Repsol Renewables' $1.5 billion Four Creeks Wind farm nears completion in Illinois, with projected tax revenue for schools and local services if built.
- Revolution Wind reaches full output, finishing a 704-MW project under federal fire 2026-11-08Ørsted says its 65-turbine farm off Connecticut and Rhode Island is fully operational, the third US utility-scale offshore wind farm to get there.
Every tracked curve: disk storage · human genome sequencing · transistors per chip · fastest supercomputer · DRAM memory · solid-state storage · space launch, to LEO · wheat yield · AI task horizon (METR) · frontier AI training compute · modular housing, turnkey · frontier-grade intelligence · AI video, finished minute · humanoid robot, capable unit · cheapest humanoid, list price · people still offline · people outside a mobile-broadband signal · farm labor share · healthcare spend per person
← the whole engine: build clock, cascade, calibration · the archive · how we know