How much does it cost to build a house per square foot?
Home construction cost per square foot · $/sqft · measured 2015–2025 · fitted live from 11 observations by the Many Minded cost-curve engine.
The last measured value is $156/sqft (2025, US Census constant-quality new-house cost index, anchored to 2024 industry ~$150/sqft). Over the fitted window the series rises 5.6% a year (80% interval +2.2% to +9.2%) — a doubling every 12.6 years (80%: 7.9–32.1). Carried forward on that fit, 2030: $205/sqft (80%: $154/sqft–$273/sqft).
the curve
what this series measures
US home-construction cost per sqft: the SHAPE is the Census constant-quality index (measured, incl. the 2021-22 spike); the dollar anchor is industry turnkey pricing.
the gate — what crossing this threshold changes
No fitted date. The curve currently moves +5.6%/yr — the wrong way for this gate: no learning curve yet — opens via a volume order (a 42-home buy likely clears it today) or robot build labor. The engine will not invent a crossing year for a series pointing away from the threshold.
what the fit says
| quantity | value | how it is computed |
|---|---|---|
| fitted rate | +5.6%/yr (80%: +2.2% to +9.2%) | Farmer–Lafond drift over the trailing window · n=11 points, 10 years |
| doubling time | 12.6 years (80%: 7.9–32.1) | implied by the fitted drift |
| curve check | decelerating (4% → 7%/yr) | first half of the record versus the second, judged against the direction that helps this metric (falling) |
Not shown for this curve, because the machinery returns nothing: Wright's law (no cumulative-deployment series for this technology); a regime break (needs ≥12 observations).
the projection, with its interval
Log cost as a random walk with drift: the forecast variance grows with horizon (τ + τ²/m), which is why these bands widen instead of staying parallel. The middle column is the least useful number on this page; the interval is the claim.
| year | central fit | 80% interval | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $164/sqft | $147/sqft to $184/sqft | near horizon |
| 2027 | $174/sqft | $148/sqft to $204/sqft | near horizon |
| 2028 | $183/sqft | $149/sqft to $226/sqft | near horizon |
| 2029 | $194/sqft | $151/sqft to $249/sqft | the band is already wide here |
| 2030 | $205/sqft | $154/sqft to $273/sqft | the band is already wide here |
| 2031 | $216/sqft | $156/sqft to $300/sqft | the band is already wide here |
| 2032 | $228/sqft | $159/sqft to $328/sqft | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2033 | $241/sqft | $162/sqft to $360/sqft | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
Projected to 2033, the horizon the whole engine uses.
questions this page answers
How much does it cost to build a house per square foot?
$156/sqft as of 2025, the latest measured value in the series (US Census constant-quality new-house cost index, anchored to 2024 industry ~$150/sqft). The fitted trend has it rising 5.6% a year, with an 80% interval of +2.2% to +9.2%.
How fast is the cost of building a house per square foot rising?
+5.6% a year over the fitted window, an 80% interval of +2.2% to +9.2% — a doubling every 12.6 years (80%: 7.9 to 32.1 years). Fitted from 11 observations spanning 10 years.
What will the cost of building a house per square foot be in 2030?
The central fit says $205/sqft, inside an 80% interval of $154/sqft to $273/sqft. The interval is the forecast; the middle number is only its midpoint. Bands widen with horizon because shocks accumulate — a constant-width band would be overconfident.
When will the cost of building a house per square foot reach ≤ $150/sqft?
There is no fitted date. The series currently moves +5.6% a year — away from the threshold, not toward it. No learning curve yet — opens via a volume order (a 42-home buy likely clears it today) or robot build labor. The engine publishes "no fitted date" rather than extrapolate a crossing a trend does not support.
Is the rise in the cost of building a house per square foot accelerating or slowing?
Splitting the record in half, the fitted rate went from 4% to 7% a year — decelerating. Regime breaks, not window choice, are what dominate this method's errors — which is why every projection here carries an interval.
Where does this data come from?
US Census constant-quality new-house cost index, anchored to 2024 industry ~$150/sqft. 11 observations spanning 2015–2025. Curated benchmark history, extended by a weekly authoritative fetch and by news figures fact-checked against their source before they may touch a fit. Both the observation ledger and the fitting code are public, and the engine publishes its own calibration score and its misses.
the raw numbers
Every observation behind the fit, unrounded by us and unsmoothed. This table is here on purpose: graphs make people underestimate exponential change, and the raw series beside the curve is the one correction shown to work.
| year | $/sqft | change |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $90/sqft | — |
| 2016 | $94/sqft | +5.0% |
| 2017 | $99/sqft | +5.1% |
| 2018 | $103/sqft | +3.6% |
| 2019 | $106/sqft | +3.0% |
| 2020 | $110/sqft | +4.1% |
| 2021 | $123/sqft | +11.6% |
| 2022 | $143/sqft | +16.5% |
| 2023 | $147/sqft | +2.4% |
| 2024 | $150/sqft | +2.2% |
| 2025 | $156/sqft | +3.7% |
where this comes from
- Source: US Census constant-quality new-house cost index, anchored to 2024 industry ~$150/sqft.
- Basis: measured. Curated benchmark history, maintained by hand against the source, extended by figures our daily editor extracts from the news — each of which is fact-checked against its source article before it may touch a fit.
- Observations: n=11, spanning 2015–2025. Ledger last updated 2026-11-02.
- Fit: the Farmer–Lafond stochastic model — log cost as a random walk with drift over a 10-year trailing window, Student-t tails, and (for series under 15 points) a volatility floor at their drift-volatility prior. The code is readable source; the observation ledger is public JSON.
- Reuse: this compiled series and the numbers on this page are published under CC BY 4.0 — take them, cite the page. The underlying source keeps its own terms.
- Accuracy: the engine grades its own intervals in public — every feasible hindcast re-fitted on data as it stood, scored for whether the actual landed inside the 80% band. The calibration score is on the engine page, misses included.
the rest of the graph
Recent briefs from SHELTER, the daily record of what moved:
- Seoul housing cooperative tests prefabricated timber floors in 18 homes 2026-11-08A Seongbuk redevelopment group built a two-storey test structure for 18 mass-timber homes, but imported materials and a mid-project switch raised costs.
- SCI-Arc task force targets fire-prone shelter resilience 2026-11-07A design group advancing fire-resistant housing strategies for high-risk areas
- Dallas opens its first rewritten land-use code to public comment 2026-11-06Dallas published a first conversation draft of a new development code, its first comprehensive rewrite in over 40 years. It is not adopted.
- Dallas starts rewriting its rules on what can be built where 2026-11-06Dallas is reworking its zoning code, a step that could allow more housing types and density in a large, growing metro.
- Dallas drafts zoning overhaul to allow more apartments and smaller lots 2026-11-06Dallas planners are drafting zoning changes to allow more multi-unit and mixed-use building, but council members disagree on how much density to permit.
- California elects an insurance chief who wants the state to cover wildfire 2026-11-06Jane Kim won the insurance commissioner race on a plan for public wildfire coverage. It still needs the legislature and governor to approve it.
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