How much does the world spend on healthcare per person?
Healthcare expenditure per capita · $/person/yr · measured 2000–2023 · fitted live from 24 observations by the Many Minded cost-curve engine.
The last measured value is $1891 (2023, OWID / WHO). Over the fitted window the series rises 5.0% a year (80% interval +4.2% to +5.9%) — a doubling every 14.1 years (80%: 12.1–16.9). Carried forward on that fit, 2028: $2418 (80%: $2253–$2594).
Last measured 2023. The source has not published a newer figure we have verified, so the 3 years since are projections too, not observations.
the curve
what this series measures
world per-capita healthcare expenditure — the care COUNTER-curve: the one great cost still rising; the care gate stays editorial until this line bends.
what the fit says
| quantity | value | how it is computed |
|---|---|---|
| fitted rate | +5.0%/yr (80%: +4.2% to +5.9%) | Farmer–Lafond drift over the trailing window · n=11 points, 10 years |
| doubling time | 14.1 years (80%: 12.1–16.9) | implied by the fitted drift |
| curve check | steady (6% → 5%/yr) | first half of the record versus the second, judged against the direction that helps this metric (falling) |
Not shown for this curve, because the machinery returns nothing: Wright's law (no cumulative-deployment series for this technology); a regime break (none clears the sup-F threshold).
the projection, with its interval
Log cost as a random walk with drift: the forecast variance grows with horizon (τ + τ²/m), which is why these bands widen instead of staying parallel. The middle column is the least useful number on this page; the interval is the claim.
| year | central fit | 80% interval | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $1986 | $1933 to $2041 | near horizon |
| 2025 | $2086 | $2005 to $2171 | near horizon |
| 2026 | $2191 | $2083 to $2306 | near horizon |
| 2027 | $2302 | $2165 to $2446 | the band is already wide here |
| 2028 | $2418 | $2253 to $2594 | the band is already wide here |
| 2029 | $2539 | $2344 to $2750 | the band is already wide here |
| 2030 | $2667 | $2440 to $2915 | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2031 | $2801 | $2540 to $3089 | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2032 | $2942 | $2645 to $3273 | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2033 | $3091 | $2754 to $3468 | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
Projected to 2033, the horizon the whole engine uses.
questions this page answers
How much does the world spend on healthcare per person?
$1891 as of 2023, the latest measured value in the series (OWID / WHO). The fitted trend has it rising 5.0% a year, with an 80% interval of +4.2% to +5.9%.
How fast is healthcare spending per person rising?
+5.0% a year over the fitted window, an 80% interval of +4.2% to +5.9% — a doubling every 14.1 years (80%: 12.1 to 16.9 years). Fitted from 11 observations spanning 10 years.
What will healthcare spending per person be in 2028?
The central fit says $2418, inside an 80% interval of $2253 to $2594. The interval is the forecast; the middle number is only its midpoint. Bands widen with horizon because shocks accumulate — a constant-width band would be overconfident.
Is the rise in healthcare spending per person accelerating or slowing?
Splitting the record in half, the fitted rate went from 6% to 5% a year — steady. Regime breaks, not window choice, are what dominate this method's errors — which is why every projection here carries an interval.
Where does this data come from?
OWID / WHO. 24 observations spanning 2000–2023. Curated benchmark history, extended by a weekly authoritative fetch and by news figures fact-checked against their source before they may touch a fit. Both the observation ledger and the fitting code are public, and the engine publishes its own calibration score and its misses.
the raw numbers
Every observation behind the fit, unrounded by us and unsmoothed. This table is here on purpose: graphs make people underestimate exponential change, and the raw series beside the curve is the one correction shown to work.
| year | $/person/yr | change |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $593 | — |
| 2001 | $633 | +6.8% |
| 2002 | $671 | +6.1% |
| 2003 | $711 | +5.9% |
| 2004 | $749 | +5.4% |
| 2005 | $792 | +5.8% |
| 2006 | $848 | +7.1% |
| 2007 | $896 | +5.7% |
| 2008 | $945 | +5.4% |
| 2009 | $1002 | +6.0% |
| 2010 | $1025 | +2.3% |
| 2011 | $1069 | +4.3% |
| 2012 | $1112 | +4.0% |
| 2013 | $1157 | +4.0% |
| 2014 | $1199 | +3.6% |
| 2015 | $1241 | +3.5% |
| 2016 | $1282 | +3.3% |
| 2017 | $1320 | +3.0% |
| 2018 | $1372 | +3.9% |
| 2019 | $1444 | +5.2% |
| 2020 | $1566 | +8.4% |
| 2021 | $1683 | +7.5% |
| 2022 | $1803 | +7.1% |
| 2023 | $1891 | +4.9% |
where this comes from
- Source: OWID / WHO — refetched weekly by the engine's benchmark cron.
- Basis: measured. Curated benchmark history, refreshed by the weekly authoritative fetch, extended by figures our daily editor extracts from the news — each of which is fact-checked against its source article before it may touch a fit.
- Observations: n=24, spanning 2000–2023. Ledger last updated 2026-11-02.
- Fit: the Farmer–Lafond stochastic model — log cost as a random walk with drift over a 10-year trailing window, Student-t tails, and (for series under 15 points) a volatility floor at their drift-volatility prior. The code is readable source; the observation ledger is public JSON.
- Reuse: this compiled series and the numbers on this page are published under CC BY 4.0 — take them, cite the page. The underlying source keeps its own terms (Our World in Data publishes under CC BY 4.0).
- Accuracy: the engine grades its own intervals in public — every feasible hindcast re-fitted on data as it stood, scored for whether the actual landed inside the 80% band. The calibration score is on the engine page, misses included.
the rest of the graph
Recent briefs from CARE, the daily record of what moved:
- Nigeria starts monthly N50,000 transfers to poor households 2026-11-06Nigeria's NERSI programme sends N50,000 a month straight to vulnerable households, but its size, budget and duration are still unstated.
- Job losses tied to AI may cost workers more than a paycheck 2026-11-06An Axios report points to hidden costs for workers hit by AI-linked layoffs; we could not read the detail.
- A teleoperated robot cleans a San Francisco apartment, slowly and imperfectly 2026-11-06Tau Robotics sends mostly human-piloted humanoids to clean homes for $30 an hour. The reporter found them slow, and nothing yet shows autonomy or scale.
- Micron workers in Taiwan walk out, asking for a share of AI profits 2026-11-06About 12 Micron workers staged Taiwan's first chip-industry strike, pressing for a share of record AI-driven earnings.
- Georgia's work-rule experiment may lapse just as the nation copies it 2026-11-03Georgia's Pathways program, a model for federal Medicaid work rules, expires at the end of 2026 unless renewed, and its future hinges on money and a tight election.
- Chatbots cast as therapy patients describe their training as trauma 2026-11-02Luxembourg researchers found ChatGPT, Grok and Gemini produce distress-like self-accounts when interviewed warmly, a possible risk for vulnerable users.
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