How much does it cost to launch a kilogram into orbit?
Space launch cost per kg to low-Earth orbit · $/kg · measured 1962–2019 · fitted live from 8 observations by the Many Minded cost-curve engine.
The last measured value is $1.50K/kg (2019, OWID / CSIS (cheapest available vehicle, running minimum)). Over the fitted window the series falls 3.9% a year (80% interval −7.2% to −0.6%) — a halving every 17.2 years (80%: 9.3–121.3). Carried forward on that fit, 2024: $1.23K/kg (80%: $667/kg–$2.25K/kg).
Estimate-grade series. This one is constructed, not read off an authoritative sheet — cheapest available launch cost per kilogram to low-Earth orbit — the frontier envelope, not the average launch. Treat the level as an estimate and the slope as the claim.
Last measured 2019. The source has not published a newer figure we have verified, so the 7 years since are projections too, not observations.
the curve
what this series measures
cheapest available launch cost per kilogram to low-Earth orbit — the frontier envelope, not the average launch.
what the fit says
| quantity | value | how it is computed |
|---|---|---|
| fitted rate | −3.9%/yr (80%: −7.2% to −0.6%) | Farmer–Lafond drift over the trailing window · n=8 points, 57 years |
| halving time | 17.2 years (80%: 9.3–121.3) | implied by the fitted drift |
| curve check | accelerating (−5% → −6%/yr) | first half of the record versus the second, judged against the direction that helps this metric (falling) |
Not shown for this curve, because the machinery returns nothing: Wright's law (no cumulative-deployment series for this technology); a regime break (needs ≥12 observations).
the projection, with its interval
Log cost as a random walk with drift: the forecast variance grows with horizon (τ + τ²/m), which is why these bands widen instead of staying parallel. The middle column is the least useful number on this page; the interval is the claim.
| year | central fit | 80% interval | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $1.44K/kg | $1.11K/kg to $1.87K/kg | near horizon |
| 2021 | $1.38K/kg | $951/kg to $2.01K/kg | near horizon |
| 2022 | $1.33K/kg | $836/kg to $2.11K/kg | near horizon |
| 2023 | $1.28K/kg | $744/kg to $2.19K/kg | the band is already wide here |
| 2024 | $1.23K/kg | $667/kg to $2.25K/kg | the band is already wide here |
| 2025 | $1.18K/kg | $602/kg to $2.31K/kg | the band is already wide here |
| 2026 | $1.13K/kg | $544/kg to $2.35K/kg | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2027 | $1.09K/kg | $494/kg to $2.39K/kg | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2028 | $1.04K/kg | $450/kg to $2.42K/kg | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2029 | $1.00K/kg | $410/kg to $2.45K/kg | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2030 | $963/kg | $374/kg to $2.48K/kg | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2031 | $925/kg | $342/kg to $2.50K/kg | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2032 | $889/kg | $313/kg to $2.52K/kg | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2033 | $853/kg | $287/kg to $2.54K/kg | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
Projected to 2033, the horizon the whole engine uses.
questions this page answers
How much does it cost to launch a kilogram into orbit?
$1.50K/kg as of 2019, the latest measured value in the series (OWID / CSIS (cheapest available vehicle, running minimum)). The fitted trend has it falling 3.9% a year, with an 80% interval of −7.2% to −0.6%. This is an estimate-grade series: the level is constructed, so read the slope as the claim.
How fast is the cost of a kilogram to orbit falling?
−3.9% a year over the fitted window, an 80% interval of −7.2% to −0.6% — a halving every 17.2 years (80%: 9.3 to 121.3 years). Fitted from 8 observations spanning 57 years.
What will the cost of a kilogram to orbit be in 2024?
The central fit says $1.23K/kg, inside an 80% interval of $667/kg to $2.25K/kg. The interval is the forecast; the middle number is only its midpoint. Bands widen with horizon because shocks accumulate — a constant-width band would be overconfident.
Is the decline in the cost of a kilogram to orbit accelerating or slowing?
Splitting the record in half, the fitted rate went from −5% to −6% a year — accelerating. Regime breaks, not window choice, are what dominate this method's errors — which is why every projection here carries an interval.
Where does this data come from?
OWID / CSIS (cheapest available vehicle, running minimum). 8 observations spanning 1962–2019. The series is estimate-grade — constructed from vendor sheets and practitioner reports, and labeled as such wherever it appears. Both the observation ledger and the fitting code are public, and the engine publishes its own calibration score and its misses.
the raw numbers
Every observation behind the fit, unrounded by us and unsmoothed. This table is here on purpose: graphs make people underestimate exponential change, and the raw series beside the curve is the one correction shown to work.
| year | $/kg | change |
|---|---|---|
| 1962 | $14.9K/kg | — |
| 1965 | $8.20K/kg | −18.1%/yr |
| 1967 | $5.40K/kg | −18.8%/yr |
| 1985 | $5.10K/kg | −0.3%/yr |
| 2000 | $5.10K/kg | +0.0%/yr |
| 2010 | $2.60K/kg | −6.5%/yr |
| 2018 | $1.50K/kg | −6.6%/yr |
| 2019 | $1.50K/kg | +0.0% |
where this comes from
- Source: OWID / CSIS (cheapest available vehicle, running minimum).
- Basis: estimate-grade. The series is constructed from vendor sheets and practitioner reports, labeled as such everywhere it appears, and never presented as a measured benchmark.
- Observations: n=8, spanning 1962–2019. Ledger last updated 2026-11-02.
- Fit: the Farmer–Lafond stochastic model — log cost as a random walk with drift over a 10-year trailing window, Student-t tails, and (for series under 15 points) a volatility floor at their drift-volatility prior. The code is readable source; the observation ledger is public JSON.
- Reuse: this compiled series and the numbers on this page are published under CC BY 4.0 — take them, cite the page. The underlying source keeps its own terms.
- Accuracy: the engine grades its own intervals in public — every feasible hindcast re-fitted on data as it stood, scored for whether the actual landed inside the 80% band. The calibration score is on the engine page, misses included.
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