War in Ukraine pulls space systems into the line of fire

Strikes on Russian rocket plants and talk of on-orbit weapons show orbit becoming a contested military theatre, with civilian space services caught up in it.

Two Ukrainian Flamingo missiles hit the Progress Rocket and Space Centre in Samara, Russia, in the early hours of 15 August 2026. Progress builds the Soyuz-2 rocket. One struck building, 106A, is a clean room where Soyuz launch-system motherboards are assembled. Those rockets carry Russia's new Rassvet satellite system, which Moscow is deploying quickly to replace Starlink, after Russia was shut out of Starlink earlier this year. Ukraine has also hit other Roscosmos sites this year, including the Korolyov complex north of Moscow and a Ukrainian-built radio telescope in Crimea that Russia captured.

The contest reaches into orbit too. Russia has used Oreshnik ballistic missiles at least three times. The missile flies through near space and releases multiple independently targetable warheads. Ukraine has run at least three near-space interception tests as it develops countermeasures. In September, US Air Force secretary Troy Meink acknowledged for the first time that the US has deployed on-orbit space control weapons. Russian tactics include signal jamming, laser dazzling of satellites and parking inspector satellites near foreign assets. One Russian satellite, Kosmos 2612, was seen manoeuvring aggressively toward an Iceye commercial radar satellite that supplies 3D terrain imaging to Ukraine's military.

This is friction for abundance. Satellite communications and imaging are civilian infrastructure, and commercial operators are now military targets and dependencies. Engineering effort and launch capacity go to hardened, sovereign networks. Starlink speeds to Ukraine were cut in recent weeks, which pushed Kyiv to diversify. Ukraine and Denmark's GomSpace announced the Obria Nano test satellite for a future independent network, reportedly about 245 satellites. That size is reported, not confirmed.

Watch for whether any rules emerge. Experts quoted, including Elena Grossfeld and Victoria Samson, say space treaties are outdated, ill defined and hard to enforce. Russia's intent toward the Iceye satellite is unclear. Grossfeld suggests it may aim to force fuel use and shorten the satellite's life. The source text we worked from was also truncated.

Source: Guardian