Many MindedSodium-ion cells edge toward LFP pricing, but system-level parity is years off
Wood Mackenzie has published an analysis of sodium-ion batteries across China, the United States, Germany and India. It finds supply agreements worldwide now total more than 70 GWh. The firm expects leading manufacturers to match LFP on cell-level cost by late 2026. Today the global average sodium-ion cell costs $229/kWh, against roughly $200/kWh for LFP.
The gap is narrower at the cell than it is further up the stack. Wood Mackenzie does not expect module-level or system-level parity until after 2030. It also estimates sodium-ion could cut total cost of ownership by 21% over a 20-year project life. It attributes that mainly to avoided capacity expansion cycles and lower operating costs. Its economics hold fairly steady across 2-to-4-hour storage durations. It projects an 18%–20% learning rate in China for 2026–2035. BYD plans 30 GWh of sodium-ion capacity, and CATL targets over 1 GWh of shipments by the end of 2026.
Policy is tilting the field. China reintroduced a consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries in July 2026 but exempted sodium-ion until the end of 2028. LFP became subject to a 2% levy in September 2026, rising to 4% in September 2027. US tariffs of about 58% on Chinese storage cells, plus Section 45X credits, favor domestic production. India has a $1.25 billion incentive program.
This matters because sodium-ion avoids lithium supply constraints. If it becomes cost-competitive, grid storage and EVs get a second supply chain and less exposure to lithium price swings. That would help push storage costs down.
The caveats are large. The cost and ownership figures are projections, not realized results. Sodium-ion still costs more upfront. Planned manufacturing capacity currently exceeds demand. Wood Mackenzie calls 2030–2035 the decisive period, and says LFP remains the most mature choice for 2–4 hour storage now.
Source: pv magazine