Many MindedChinese emissions slide 3% in third quarter as clean power outgrows demand
China's CO2 emissions fell 3.1% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, the largest quarterly drop since the 2022 Covid lockdowns. That is according to analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, published by Carbon Brief and built on official figures and commercial data. Coal use fell 3% and oil use fell 4%. Estimated emissions are down 0.5% for 2026 so far, and the trend has been flat or falling since March 2024.
The power sector carries much of the story. Solar, wind and nuclear output rose by 110 TWh year-on-year, more than twice the rise in total electricity demand and comparable to Germany's entire power output. Coal-power generation fell 3.3%. Transport oil use dropped 9%, as EVs hit a record 67% of passenger car sales and 50% of heavy truck sales in September. Electricity used by EVs grew 53%, faster than the fleet, so existing EVs are being driven more. Cement and steel emissions also fell as construction contracted.
Why it matters: when clean generation grows faster than demand, fossil fuel burn falls without anyone rationing energy. That is the mechanism by which power gets cheaper and cleaner at once. China is also still building coal capacity at near-record rates, so coal plants are running fewer hours rather than disappearing.
The caveats are real. The Hormuz crisis hitting oil demand is cited as a driver, so part of the fall may be temporary. Mild Q3 weather and weaker GDP growth explain some of the slower demand growth, and the 0.5% year-to-date figure is an estimate. Whether the decline continues depends on the government's response to the economic slowdown, including stimulus focused on the power grid and transport network, and on removing grid barriers that waste some clean electricity.
Source: Carbon Brief